Weekly Access

Crossing the Zero Bound

08/10/18

When something is free on the internet, it is because you are the product. 




What’s Shaking Markets?

06/28/18

Tariffs and the Fed are on the list.




4 Surprising Charts

06/08/18

Below is a collection of charts and data detailing areas affecting the global economy and markets. 




Spring Selling Season: Housing Update

05/11/18

With spring selling season upon us, let’s take a trip through the latest data.




What’s the ‘Deal’ with Private Equity?

04/06/18

After decades of fundraising by private equity managers in the institutional investment world, pensions and endowments are tapped out.  




Finding the Flow: Hoops and Funds

03/23/18

After any amazing athletic performance, the post-game interview always seems to begin with the question, “What was going through your mind during that play?”




Looking for Opportunity: Japan Edition

03/09/18

Narratives can dominate an investment story, long after a new one emerges.




Market Update

02/09/18

We are in the midst of the 28th time the stock market fell between 10% to 20% since 1945. 




Tax Cuts: What’s Baked into Expectations?

By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA – Chief Investment Officer

A tax cut puts more money in shareholders’ pockets and that is a good thing for company stock prices.  We learn in Finance 101 that good news alone does not make markets go up.  What matters is whether that news is baked into market expectations.  A few months ago, markets were not sure if tax reform would get passed.  The increasing likelihood of Congress working together and continued positive economic data pushed equity markets higher the last several months.

Looking ahead in the U.S., analysts forecast the highest earnings growth for mid-sized companies.  Small caps have the lowest earnings growth expectations, which is surprising considering the domestic economic strength.

Even more interesting, analysts see earnings in the U.S. growing slower than most major markets.  This even included the United Kingdom, wading through “Brexit”.  Japan and emerging markets are on top, with earnings projections of 20% and 18%, respectively.

This comes at a time when U.S. equity markets are priced at the highest valuation levels in the last twenty years, outside of the technology bubble in the late 1990s.  Japan’s price to earnings (shown on the right scale because it hit an obscene 80x in 2000!), is near the lows despite its rapid earnings growth.

While confidence is rightfully high in the U.S., abroad we see greater opportunities.  Investors now have the most money in stocks since 1999/2000.  Tilting equity portfolios overseas makes sense today with lower valuations and a greater reward to risk ratio.

 

This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. Aurum Wealth Management Group has no obligation to provide updated information on the securities or information mentioned herein. Actual events may differ from those assumed and changes to any assumptions may have a material impact on any projections or estimates.




Picking a Stock: Not for the Faint of Heart

11/20/17

By Michael McKeown, CFA, CPA – Chief Investment Officer

Jesse Livermore, considered by some the most famous trader ever, learned to trade in the bucket shops in the early 1900s.  He profited from the 1929 market crash by betting it would fall, and certainly earned his nickname, “Boy Plunger.”




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